Weekly Roundup

Just wanted to touch on a few topics in my weekly roundup.

The teams in District III AAAA fall in four categories. Those clinching bids, those who will likely clinch a bid, those almost eliminated, and those who are eliminated:

Clinching bids:

1. Reading
2. McCaskey
3. Hempfield
4. York
5. Red Lion
6. Cedar Crest
7. CD East
8. Red Land
9. Mechanicsburg

Likely to clinch a bid:

1. Chambersburg 7-6: Need 3 wins to clinch since they only play 20 PIAA games before the district cutoff. Could be tough though with games against CD East, Steel High, CD, Cedar Cliff, Greencastle Antrim, Bishop McDevitt, and Harrisburg.
2. Harrisburg 7-6: Need to go .500 down the stretch to qualify in result of playing 21 PIAA games before the cutoff. The win over Lower Merion yesterday was huge for their confidence. Still is very possible that their finale against Chambersburg could be almost like an elimination game.
3. Wilson 8-9: Needs to go 4-2 to qualify but the toughest part of their schedule is behind them. Might need to beat their rival Governor Mifflin in finale in Shillington to clinch bid.
4. Dallastown 9-6: Need two more wins to qualify and should be able to get that against some subpar competition in their remaining schedule with games against Lower Dauphin and Spring Grove.
5. Carlisle 11-6: With one more win they get in. The remaining schedule is not easy but should be able to get a win, if not they really dont deserve to be in.
6. Central York 9-7: Seems to be a very mediocre York county team. Need 3 wins to qualify. Besides the Spring Grove game not many easy outs on their remaining schedules.
7. Cedar Cliff 9-6: Has full alotment of 24 games on their schedule before cutoff. Need three wins in their final eight games. Team is leaking oil as we head to the end of the season. Still not a givein that they will make it. Sad after they started the season so promisingly.
8. Waynesboro 8-8: Needs to finish 4-3 in the final seven games to qualify. Even if they qualify will definitely be the lowest qualifing seed in the playoffs.
9. Conestoga Valley 9-7: Same as Waynesboro in that they need to go 4-3 to qualify. But dont play any team on their schedule that they really cant beat.
10. Exeter 9-4: Needs one win to clinch with only playing 20 PIAA games this season. Should get that win with remaining games against Twin Valley and Conrad Weiser.
11. Solanco 8-8: Needs to finish 4-3 over final seven games to get in. Besides Garden Spot all the Section II teams are very equal so not out of the question to see them get four wins before the end of the season.
12. Cocalico 10-7: Need two wins in final 6 games to qualify. Should be able to in very even Section II.

Following teams our clinging to life support to get a bid:

1. Penn Manor: Two more losses to be eliminated.
2. Central Dauphin: Need to go 6-2 to qualify.
3. Manheim Township: Two more losses to be eliminated.
4. Lower Dauphin: Next loss eliminates them.
5. Warwick: Next loss eliminates them.
6. Governor Mifflin: Two more losses to be eliminated.
7. Twin Valley: Next loss eliminates them.
8. Ephrata: Next loss eliminates them.
9. Elizabethtown: Needs to go 6-2 down the stretch to qualify.
10. Gettysburg: Needs to go 6-2 down the stretch to qualify.
11. Southwestern: Needs to go 5-2 to qualify.
12. Cumberland Valley: Needs to go 5-2 to qualify.

The following teams have been eliminated:

1. York Vo-Tech
2. Spring Grove
3. Garden Spot

• Some folks have asked me about McCaskey getting the 3 seed ahead of Cedar Crest. If they run the table they will get the 3 seed even if Cedar Crest would go 6-1 with the one remaining loss being to the Tornadoes.
• For Reading to not be the #1 seed they would have to lose two games. Even if they suprisingly lost two games, CD East would have to run the table.
• After seeing a decent sample size of the season I realistically think there are really only about five or six teams who I give a realistic shot of winning the District title. But with that being said after you get past the legitimate contenders of Reading, CD East, Red Land, Red Lion, and Harrisburg there are a lot of teams who are very even and similar. Some might question my calling Harrisburg a contender but as long as they have that black and silver jersey on they always have a chance.

Thats all for now, some great matchups this week which will go a long way in separating the men from the boys.